Welcome Back...

Welcome back Cards fans. Ok, welcome back mom and Jason.

The offseason is winding down, and I’m going to begin posting again. Why did I wait? Well, if you read this, then you’re a fan. You’re looking for informed insight. I don’t live in Florida, and I don’t talk to baseball players. What am I gonna tell you in spring training you don’t already know?

As it winds down, I’ll tell you that of those battling for second base and left field honors, Luna and Taguchi are certain to make the team. If they are named starters, it’s because no one else stepped up.

But I really don’t like spring training. It’s a time of anticipation, they say. I call it a time for pale imitation. We all get excited about Spring Training. Why? Because it means the season has almost started. It represents a marker on the way to opening day, but in reality, we’re no more experiencing baseball than we were in January. I liken spring training to advent. It ain’t Christmas yet, but the little chocolates you get each day are nice. Still, watching spring training games is like drinking O’Douls. It tastes bad, and will bloat you, all without the reward of alcohol. What a country.

But at least we have the competitions for bench spots on the roster; especially in the pen. And we get to speculate as to whether Chris Carpenter’s arm will fall off after throwing over 260 innings last season (including the post-season.) That’s always fun, so let’s get to it.

It looks for all the world like Taguchi will start in left, at least until Bigbie’s foot heals. Luna has been the most effective second baseman, but still could lose out to Spivey. Frankly, no one has impressed in the battle for left or second. No matter who is there, questions will abound. Spivey can't field, and Luna appears asleep half the time he's in the field.

The injury to Bigbie has ignited speculation that Chris Duncan will make the team. Not a terrible development.

Frankly, the step back in defense at second base and leftfield is troubling. The Cardinals pitchers don't strike out a lot of guys. They need to play great defense. So far, Spivey has been shaky, and no one else has stepped up. It's cause for concern.

Offensively, the Cards will likely take a small step back. Rolen, who is supposed to be in "recovery" mode until June, will still be better than Nunez. Encarnacion should replace Sanders numbers nicely. Anyone in left should improve over the rotating right fielder of 05. Edmonds and Molina should improve. Albert is Albert, Eckstein is Eckstein. The second baseman will like stink to high heaven.

Since Vina left, the Cards have been holding together second with cast-offs and over-the-hill roll guys. That it has worked as well as it has is a testiment to luck. Something tells me we can't do it a third time. We'll see.

But to me, the bullpen questions are more pressing.

The staff has been a concern of yours truly for a few months. I’ve spent the last few years telling anyone who will listen that the way to construct a regular season winner is to build a bullpen. You could get cheap, reliable arms like Tavarez, Al Reyes, Kline, King and Lincoln seemingly off the scrap heap each off-season.

With four or five quality arms to bridge the gap between starter and closer, you could afford to give your pen the 7th and 8th of each game. That allowed you to sign cheaper starters like Jeff Suppan, who is fantastically consistent, but always manages to give up about 3 runs a start, with six innings pitched. He keeps you in the game, and hands the pen either a lead, or a close game start after start. And he does it all for $3 million per year. That’s a winning strategy, especially in a small market.

But what happened this year? Scott Tyre got over $3 million per year, Kyle Farnsworth got nearly $6 million a year (is that THE Kyle Farnsworth? Really?), and Braden Looper got nearly $5 million a year…all to set up other closers.

Given the market, I’d say the Cards did a respectable job building their pen. Looper was awful, I mean awful, I mean pigs knuckles and sauerkraut awful last year against left-handed hitters. He turned every lefty last season into Jim Edmonds. And I mean the 2004 version of Edmonds, not last years mediocre facsimile.

Looper believes the ineffectiveness was related to a shoulder injury. His career stats suggest he’s correct. Over his career, he’s been as effective against lefties as Julian Tavarez, which is to say he’s decent, and I take that as a good sign.

Ricardo Rincon should be a solid lefty, and Izzy should continue to be dominant in the ninth. It’s a good start. But there are four more slots to fill.

One assumes Randy Flores will make the team. He’s a lefty that has pitched for LaRussa and has yet to prove he stinks. Despite this fact, I’m still leery of Flores. I watch him, and he’s effective, but I can’t figure out why. It’s like watching Leonardo DiCaprio act. You don’t know why, and you certainly don’t want to admit it, but he’s good. It’s best just to accept it a move on. I really have no point here.

I think Jeff Nelson’s chances took a hit when Tyler Johnson hurt his elbow. Nelson’s a righty, and he drops down when he pitches. His sidearmed delivery, coupled with his 6’7” frame, means he lets the ball go further to the right than Fox News. Lefties love him. If he makes the team, he absolutely cannot throw against any left-handers; not even if Tino Martinez comes out of retirement. I’d rather see Oquendo take the hill against Bonds than Nelson. If he makes the team, the Cards will need a third lefty.

Tyler Johnson had been tearing it up in winter ball, and he figured to challenge for the final lefty spot. Then he hurt his arm in batting practice. LaRussa may still take the veteran Nelson, but it will leave the Cards pen with at least three “specialists.” Rincon and Flores will typically face lefties, and Nelson will only face righties. And you thought TLR used to make a lot of pitching changes. The lesson, as usual, get TiVo and fast-forward the pitching changes.

Brad Thompson appears to have been steady this spring, so expect him to be on the squad.

So, we have:

1. Izzy
2. Looper
3. Rincon
4. Flores
5. ???
6. ???
7. Thompson

The candidates are Johnson, Cali, Nelson, Alan Benes, Josh Hancock and Adam Wainwright.

It’s the bullpen depth that concerns me. Cal Eldred was probably our weakest bullpen guy last year. He threw 41 effective innings. That’s 41 games where the Birds had an advantage over every other team in the Central. It’s not shaping up that way this year, and that’s a concern….for me and for Suppan.

My guess is we’ll see Hancock and Wainwright. If we see Nelson, that means either Cali or Johnson should be there as well, if not at the beginning, then early in April.

Now, on to Carpenter’s daily injury watch. The theory goes like this. Carpenter threw 260+ innings last season (with playoffs.) It was his first healthy season in four years, so now his are will fall off.

Quick Rob Neyer-esque quiz. Look at the following two pitchers.

Pitcher a: 241.1 innings pitched, 33 Games, 3395 pitches thrown, 10 times over 110 pitches with a high of 121.

Pitcher b: 241.1 innings pitched, 35 Games, 3601 pitches thrown, 10 times over 110 pitches with a high of 130.

Both pitchers have a history of shoulder problems, which one do you fear being hurt? Obviously pitcher b put more strain on his arm. Who was pitcher b? Roy Oswalt. Pitcher a was Carpenter.

Carpenter was incredibly efficient last season, never exceeding 121 pitches, and rarely exceeding 110. Am I concerned, sure. But it’s not as if he threw as much as Wood or Prior in 2003. Take a look at their stats:

Wood: 211 innings, 32 games, 22 times over 110 pitches with a high of 141, 3545 total pitches.

Prior: 211 innings pitched, 30 games, 3404 pitches thrown, 22 times over 110, high of 133 (twice, in his first and last start.)

Dusty Baker should be sued.

I give the above to put Carpenter’s injury risk in perspective. If he has a decent bullpen, Carpenter, and the Cards as a whole, will be fine.