Is the Dream over?

Is Jeff Weaver going to Seattle? It almost seems too smart for him. If the reports are correct, then Weaver is a Mariner.

He’ll drink coffee, listen to Eddie Vedder, and sharpen his sports mind with Dr. Frasier Crane. He already has the haircut.

Actually, that’s a bit harsh. The guy won the Birds a World Series, so he can pitch anywhere in the AL without retribution.

We haven’t seen the deal yet, and my guess is Seattle paid him more than any of us would have thought reasonable. Seattle wanted Schmidt and Zito, but got neither. They also lost suddenly rich Gil Meche. They look desperate. They’ll overpay.

If Walt is to be believed, the Cards are done this season. That means our best offseason acquisition was Marquis to the Cubs. Let’s assume we're done, and take a look.

The Cards will be competitive, but this isn’t a team that will waltz into the postseason. The team is solid, but there is nothing to suggest a ten game lead over the Cubs, Brewers, or Astros.

The Rotation, pre-Mulder, looks a little incomplete, or at least in flux:

Carpenter
Wells
Reyes
Franklin
Narveson/Wainwright/Looper.

The first three are no-brainers, though there is major injury worry with Anthony. Franklin didn’t start last year, but has a contract laden with starting incentives, so he’s going to start.

Truth is, I don’t mind the top four. Carpenter is fantastic. The other three should be able to throw ground balls for six innings. When you have Rolen, Eckstein and Albert in the infield, you don’t have to strike everyone out. Strike Outs are boring, besides that, they’re fascists.

With the defense the Cards have, decent pitchers win 15 games. Wells, Reyes, and Franklin are decent.

The problems lie in the fifth starter and in Reyes’ shoulder. Narveson is, well, one year removed from being released from the minors. Wainwright has huge upside, with four legitimate major league pitches.

But it’s the domino effect. If you take Wainwright out of the pen, then we have to hope Izzy is healthy, and effective for six months. Arthritic hips just don’t stay healthy for six months. The thought of Izzy as our closer is tolerable only with Wainwright there as security. The Cards are caught between the present and the future with Adam. With two great major league pitches, and two others that are adequate, his future is as a starter. But for this season, with Mulder lurking to take a rotation spot, the Cards need his presence in the pen.

And don’t look to the off-days to hide our fifth starter. I checked. We need five. A lot.

I suppose I could dream that Looper regains form, can close in Izzy’s absence. Then Izzy takes two and a half months off, and Adam can start. This seems unlikely.

To win this year, and Tony has never indicated he won’t try, Adam is needed in the pen, or Izzy is on the mound no later than May 1. That puts Narveson either as our fifth starter or Looper as our closer.

If Reyes needs a few weeks off. Well, let's just hope he waits until Mulder comes back.

Ironically, the Cards have a fantastic playoff rotation if Mulder is healthy. Carp, Mulder, Reyes, Wells, with a pen of Izzy, Wainwright, Tyler, and the rest. That's better than any time in the last six years.

The rest of the pen (Springer, Kinney, the five hundred lefties) all look great. We have bullpen depth. Whoever is the fifth starter won’t have to pitch more than five innings.

Should be interesting. Glad we won the WS last year. Seems worth mentioning.

On offense, it’s hard to imagine getting worse, but we just might do it. Of the entire lineup, only Rolen and Edmonds are candidates for significant improvement. Molina should improve, but ten times nuttin is nuttin. We’ll get slightly more from second base than we did last season.

But I can’t see Edmonds being healthy all year, and Duncan ain’t gonna do for a season what he did for two months. Still, I like the Cards offense better than the Cubs. We have Albert. Rolen should improve to protect him. And the Cards are just better hitters than the Cubs. They are tougher on pitchers, work the count better, strike out less, put pressure on defenses.
No other lineup in the division does that.

I’m gonna have to wait until spring to make any predictions for the division. The Cubs have made their move. But they are the Cubs. I just can’t pick them to win. At least not in January.