The One Man the Cards Can't Lose....

There is but one man the Cards can ill-afford to lose this season. His name? Jason Isringhausen.

I hear the giggles already. Let me convince you.

Here are the Cardinals bullpen stats for the past few years:

Save Opportunities Save % NL Rank Wins
2003 71 58% 16th 85
2004 73 78% 2nd 104
2005 65 74% 2nd 100

In 2003, the Cards bullpen had as many save opportunities as they did in 2004. They simply converted fewer. Why? Izzy was hurt, and the rest of the pen suffered as well. In 2003, the Cards got 41 wins when they had their save opportunities. Had they converted 78% of their saves, they would have had, potentially, 14 more wins, and they would have run away with the Central with 99 victories. Now I know that not every "blown save" translates into a loss. But fourteen fewer "blown saves" would certainly have made up the difference between the Cards 85 wins and the Cubs 88.

What was the difference between 03 and 04? In ’03, Izzy was out for about half the year, and pitched injured for the other half. The pen never came together, and the Cards never got it going. They had to extend Woody and Morris, who both broke down by the end of the year; and Stephenson and Simontachi, both effective when going only 5-6 innings, couldn’t keep their leads past then.

Izzy leads the pen. When he’s healthy, Looper knows his role, and can execute it. Rincon and Flores know their roles and can execute. Thompson and whomever winds up next to him in the pen will know their roles. You can’t convince me that relievers aren’t better when they are constantly pitching in the same situations each game.

Last season, Eldred would start riding the exercise bike in the fifth inning. He knew, if he was going to come in, it would be in the fifth or sixth. He was ready. In 41 games, he was the best Eldred could be. That was 41 games where the Cardinals had an advantage over every team in the Central.

The Cards pitching strength has been their depth. Their pen and their third threw fifth starters. Suppan and Marquis are decent pitchers, but you can’t rely on them for more than six innings. Ponson’s stats, and girth, suggest he shouldn’t exceed six innings either.

That means you need Wainwright/Benes/Flores to negotiate the 7th inning a few times a week. You need Looper/Rincon to get through the 8th, and Izzy to hammer down the 9th.

Without Izzy, Looper has to close (arrrrrghh), and someone else has to fill in the 8th inning. Worse, you have to rely on your worst pitchers to pitch the 7th, or you extend Suppan, Marquis or Ponson.

Izzy is that stabilizing force at the top of the pen. Without him, the pen crumbles, and the third through fifth starters crumble too.

Other GM’s are starting to pick up on this. Hence the Cubs adding Bob Howry and Scott Tyre. You need a pen. Izzy is the key to ours, and the one man the Cards cannot afford to lose.