Izzy--Can't live with him. Pass the Beer Nuts.

Seems like you can't pass ten minutes without someone worrying about the Cards starting rotation. I don't. Know why?

Kent Bottenfield. Juan Acevedo. Darren Oliver. Garrett Stephenson. Jason Simontacchi.

All of them looked effective for significant stretches as a starter for the Cardinals. None could pitch more than five or six innings without being exposed. Dave Duncan, along with the Cards defense, can get nearly anyone through six innings effectively.

Then it’s up to the pen. I love this way of running a ballclub. It leads to the Jeff Suppans of the world winning 15-18 games. Suppans are cheap, at least they are cheap before they become Cards.

So congratulations Mr. Wells, on your 2008 contract. If you haven’t thought to do it, by the way, draft Kip Wells in your fantasy draft. Before Suppan.

The above list of names is why I don’t worry about the rotation anymore. I worry about the pen.

The strength of the Cards rotation has always depended on the strength of the pen. In 2002, the Cards had Matt Morris, Woody Williams, and then no one. They won 97 games on the strength of an outstanding pen, anchored by Izzy.

Izzy had surgery in 2003, and the pen imploded. The same starting staff imploded along with it, Morris and Woody wore down, and frankly have never been the same.

This year, the backend of the Cards pen looks decent. Brad Thompson looks better this spring; and Ryan Franklin and Russ Springer are at least decent. The left side looks good with Tyler Johnson, Ricardo Rincon and Randy Flores.

The real question is, with Braden Looper and Adam Wainwright starting; who backs up Izzy? Izzy has an arthritic hip. It may be “ok” for a while, but he will hurt it again. If not this year, then sometime. When?

Izzy took the hill for five months as an ineffective closer last year, so it's not like he'll need to broadcast it if his hip barks. Each time Izzy blows a save, get ready for an avalanche of hip calls to radio shows.

If/when Izzy does go on the DL, who is Option B? Wainwright or Looper after Mulder comes back? That seems the most logical choice. The real problem with that dilemma is that Wainwright is the best option as a closer, but probably the best option also as a starter.

No one seems to want to notice this, but Anthony Reyes was throwing 96 at this time last year. He's now throwing 90. He's supposed to throw 180 innings? At this rate, he'll turn into Jamie Moyer by September.

So if Reyes is down, and Wainwright is throwing well, do you pull him from the rotation to replace Izzy? Feels like a raw deal for Adam.

Why do I feel like putting Adam as a closer will hurt the 2010 Cardinal rotation?

I normally don't get wrapped around the axel about injuries, but the above seems all too likely. Which is why I really don't understand the Looper starter experiment. Say what you will about Looper, if he's throwing well, he's a viable closer. If he's not throwing well, do you want him starting?

Doesn't it make more sense to start Franklin, who once posted an ERA under 4.00 in the AL as a starter, and leave Looper as backup?

As it stands, it appears Wainwright would move to the pen if Izzy goes down. Again, that can't be a good career move for Adam.

The bullpen is deep enough to get the ball to the 9th. The question remains, can Izzy close it out. If Izzy is healthy last year, and blows his normal 4-5 games rather than the 10 he blew, the Cards win 88-89 games…with Suppan and Marquis impoding and Mulder hurt.

The Cards chances for October baseball rest with Izzy. Seems like I say this every year.