TLR----The Gambler Version

If there is anything eleven years of LaRussa managing has taught us, it is to expect the unexpected. How else do you explain Jeff Tabaka.

LaRussa will think every scenario through over and again, then decide on which one he believes gives us the edge. There are few hard and fast rules governing his thinking. All but a few of those are bendable.

Typically, LaRussa prefers to be relentless. Get a team down, and stomp on them. This year, however, he’s starting Jeff Weaver in Game 2 against the Padres, with a rested Suppan ready to go. By starting Weaver against David Wells (a lefty, with a pulse, meaning we can’t hit him), TLR is putting us at a huge Game 2 disadvantage. He’s doing it to gain a smaller advantage in Game 3 and 4 at home. The relentless axiom flies out the window.

LaRussa is playing as if he’s short-stacked at a poker table. He’s not giving up on Game 2, but is simply pressing his advantage in other games. It’s fascinating to watch, since it is how I would manage if I were playing EA Sports MLB 2006. Give up one game to win another later. Give up last Sunday to save Carp. Give up today to press Saturday. Going all in for Games 1, 3 and 4.

It’s a strategy that has merit, if only Reyes were on the playoff roster. More on that later.

If the Cards win today, or fail to score more than 3 runs, the strategy is a good one. If the Cards put up five or more runs today, then presumably Suppan could have won the game, or at least have been favored to do so. In that case, it’s a bad gamble. We’ll see.

What really bothers me is we're giving San Diego a chance to get up off the mat. A 2-0 lead would be nice.

The one axiom TLR is not willing to bend on, apparently, is his belief that you don’t start a rookie in the post-season until you have absolutely no one else left. I can’t blame him for being gun-shy on rookies after Ankiel.

TLR did start Bud Smith in 2001 in the first round of the playoffs. He also started Alan Benes in 1996 in Atlanta. This year, if the series goes 5 games, the options are limited. Anthony Reyes isn’t on the roster, so Weaver would have to go on three days rest. Or Marquis could start. If that happens, I hope you’ll join me at Hrobosky’s saloon for a 12 drink minimum.

I really don’t understand Reyes not being on the roster. There isn’t a situation that screams for Marquis to pitch. Even in mop-up duty, with all the off-days in this series, the pen should be rested enough to pitch seven innings, and still have something for the next day. Why not keep Reyes in case you need him for Game 5. He is our best option, right?

Maybe Reyes is tired or hurt or both. I dunno. Maybe Marquis will be that key pinch hitter. If so, we’re in fantastic shape, with Marquis being such a great hitting pitcher, and all.

If you were listening to 590 this morning, you heard the Grinders bemoan Weaver starting today because of the Game 5 scenario and the NLCS Game 1 scenario. Game 1 would be on Wednesday, leaving either Suppan to go on three days rest, Carpenter on two days rest, or Weaver, assuming he doesn’t have to pitch a game 5. If he does, we’re back to either Reyes or Thompson. Or Marquis. Hell, maybe Andy Benes is available.

This 590 conversation took place a full three days after the Grinders advocated Weaver in Game 2 because he’s “better” on the road and Suppan is good at home. Way to cover your bases there 590.

First, I don’t put much stock in home/road splits. There simply isn’t a big enough sample size to make a difference. Second, Weaver being “better” simply means he’s better than he normally is. Normally, he’s a pitcher with a 5.76 ERA and an OPS over 1.000 against lefties.

It wouldn’t shock me to see an infield for the Padres of Gonzales, Walker, Blum and Branyon…lefties all. In the outfield, Roberts and Giles (lefties) will team with Cameron. That means Cameron and Piazza will be the only righties in the lineup. Essentially, with Weaver on the hill, six of the nine hitter Padres will have an OPS better than all but one of our hitters. Are you an alcoholic if you are drunk by 3:30?

The beauty of this team lies in its superstars. It’s hard to find better players than Carpenter and Pujols. When they do their thing, we’re tough to beat. That’s why winning Tuesday was huge. We held serve. Now, it’s the Padres serve, with us having the opportunity to steal one.

If it’s close, look for Weaver to get pulled near the 5th or 6th inning when the top of the order comes up. Look for Tyler Johnson and/or Flores to get some innings. Plural.
Gotta hand it to Tony. He’s never afraid to be wrong. No comedian I admire has ever been afraid of silence. No manager not named Grady Little has ever been afraid of sports talk radio. It’s a big role of the dice, but then again, he is short-stacked.