It's Just Bud Being Bud

And Bud Strikes again.

Why am I even surprised by the news that MLB will make the Extra Innings package available only on DirecTV? (registration required for link). The Extra Innings package gives fans up to 60 out of market games per week.

To summarize the article, DirecTV will pay MLB $700 million, or roughly 2.8 “A-Rods,” over seven years for the exclusive rights to carry the Extra Innings Package. This means that only 15 million of the 75 million families that currently have the option to buy the package will have the option when the deal goes through.

If the ratios of current subscribers are equal across mediums (and I don’t have that stat), then the number of subscribers will fall from 750,000 to 150,000 simply due to lack of availability. MLB will have left 600,000 of its diehard fans without the subscription.

Fewer fans who, in October of 2007, will know the Indians or Brewers when they meet in the series which will, for the third consecutive season, set a record for the lowest rated World Series in MLB history. MLB will make more money off the deal than those humble subscribers would have paid them, I’m sure. But I feel as though I’ve just had my teeth worked on with a drill that entered my body through my pinkie toe.

Nice work, Bud. Another fine example of grabbing money now at the expense of later.

TV wants the playoffs at noon and 9:00 pm? Screw the kids, take the money. Corporate America will pay for every decent seat to every game? Screw the fans, take the money. Corporate America will pay more for luxury boxes? Screw the ordinary fans with their pants on so they don’t realize you are taking their money to build a new stadium where they have no prayer of ever sitting within an astronomical unit of home plate. Then take the money.

It’s great for the bottom line. The TV money is big money. When businesses buy the seats, it looks like the park is full. It’s full of people who’d rather be on their cell phones and blackberries than watch a game, but it’s full. It all equals more money for MLB, and that’s fine. It’s a business.

But it equals less interest in the game. Fewer kids grow up watching baseball. Fewer parents can take their families to fewer games.

The question is: where is the tipping point? Back in the days of the St. Louis Arena, the blue collar worker in St. Louis paid good money to go see as many Blues games as possible. Hockey grew in popularity, and the NHL expanded to new markets and bought new arenas. The price on tickets went up, and Corporate America initially filled that void with season ticket purchases. The regular fan was left with a few games in the cheap seats each year.

The result? Interest in Hockey began to wane. Hockey teams in "warm weather" cities couldn't sustain or create the fan base. Ratings fell, the TV money dried up, and the owners were left with horrible contracts for players based on revenue that was no longer there. Now the Blues can top 10,000 fans only when they offer the fattest city in America free fried food to show up.

So where is the tipping point? When do we pass the point where MLB loses all that really matters when determining how much money a sport can make?

When have we lost too many fans?

Is the Dream over?

Is Jeff Weaver going to Seattle? It almost seems too smart for him. If the reports are correct, then Weaver is a Mariner.

He’ll drink coffee, listen to Eddie Vedder, and sharpen his sports mind with Dr. Frasier Crane. He already has the haircut.

Actually, that’s a bit harsh. The guy won the Birds a World Series, so he can pitch anywhere in the AL without retribution.

We haven’t seen the deal yet, and my guess is Seattle paid him more than any of us would have thought reasonable. Seattle wanted Schmidt and Zito, but got neither. They also lost suddenly rich Gil Meche. They look desperate. They’ll overpay.

If Walt is to be believed, the Cards are done this season. That means our best offseason acquisition was Marquis to the Cubs. Let’s assume we're done, and take a look.

The Cards will be competitive, but this isn’t a team that will waltz into the postseason. The team is solid, but there is nothing to suggest a ten game lead over the Cubs, Brewers, or Astros.

The Rotation, pre-Mulder, looks a little incomplete, or at least in flux:

Carpenter
Wells
Reyes
Franklin
Narveson/Wainwright/Looper.

The first three are no-brainers, though there is major injury worry with Anthony. Franklin didn’t start last year, but has a contract laden with starting incentives, so he’s going to start.

Truth is, I don’t mind the top four. Carpenter is fantastic. The other three should be able to throw ground balls for six innings. When you have Rolen, Eckstein and Albert in the infield, you don’t have to strike everyone out. Strike Outs are boring, besides that, they’re fascists.

With the defense the Cards have, decent pitchers win 15 games. Wells, Reyes, and Franklin are decent.

The problems lie in the fifth starter and in Reyes’ shoulder. Narveson is, well, one year removed from being released from the minors. Wainwright has huge upside, with four legitimate major league pitches.

But it’s the domino effect. If you take Wainwright out of the pen, then we have to hope Izzy is healthy, and effective for six months. Arthritic hips just don’t stay healthy for six months. The thought of Izzy as our closer is tolerable only with Wainwright there as security. The Cards are caught between the present and the future with Adam. With two great major league pitches, and two others that are adequate, his future is as a starter. But for this season, with Mulder lurking to take a rotation spot, the Cards need his presence in the pen.

And don’t look to the off-days to hide our fifth starter. I checked. We need five. A lot.

I suppose I could dream that Looper regains form, can close in Izzy’s absence. Then Izzy takes two and a half months off, and Adam can start. This seems unlikely.

To win this year, and Tony has never indicated he won’t try, Adam is needed in the pen, or Izzy is on the mound no later than May 1. That puts Narveson either as our fifth starter or Looper as our closer.

If Reyes needs a few weeks off. Well, let's just hope he waits until Mulder comes back.

Ironically, the Cards have a fantastic playoff rotation if Mulder is healthy. Carp, Mulder, Reyes, Wells, with a pen of Izzy, Wainwright, Tyler, and the rest. That's better than any time in the last six years.

The rest of the pen (Springer, Kinney, the five hundred lefties) all look great. We have bullpen depth. Whoever is the fifth starter won’t have to pitch more than five innings.

Should be interesting. Glad we won the WS last year. Seems worth mentioning.

On offense, it’s hard to imagine getting worse, but we just might do it. Of the entire lineup, only Rolen and Edmonds are candidates for significant improvement. Molina should improve, but ten times nuttin is nuttin. We’ll get slightly more from second base than we did last season.

But I can’t see Edmonds being healthy all year, and Duncan ain’t gonna do for a season what he did for two months. Still, I like the Cards offense better than the Cubs. We have Albert. Rolen should improve to protect him. And the Cards are just better hitters than the Cubs. They are tougher on pitchers, work the count better, strike out less, put pressure on defenses.
No other lineup in the division does that.

I’m gonna have to wait until spring to make any predictions for the division. The Cubs have made their move. But they are the Cubs. I just can’t pick them to win. At least not in January.