The One Man the Cards Can't Lose....

There is but one man the Cards can ill-afford to lose this season. His name? Jason Isringhausen.

I hear the giggles already. Let me convince you.

Here are the Cardinals bullpen stats for the past few years:

Save Opportunities Save % NL Rank Wins
2003 71 58% 16th 85
2004 73 78% 2nd 104
2005 65 74% 2nd 100

In 2003, the Cards bullpen had as many save opportunities as they did in 2004. They simply converted fewer. Why? Izzy was hurt, and the rest of the pen suffered as well. In 2003, the Cards got 41 wins when they had their save opportunities. Had they converted 78% of their saves, they would have had, potentially, 14 more wins, and they would have run away with the Central with 99 victories. Now I know that not every "blown save" translates into a loss. But fourteen fewer "blown saves" would certainly have made up the difference between the Cards 85 wins and the Cubs 88.

What was the difference between 03 and 04? In ’03, Izzy was out for about half the year, and pitched injured for the other half. The pen never came together, and the Cards never got it going. They had to extend Woody and Morris, who both broke down by the end of the year; and Stephenson and Simontachi, both effective when going only 5-6 innings, couldn’t keep their leads past then.

Izzy leads the pen. When he’s healthy, Looper knows his role, and can execute it. Rincon and Flores know their roles and can execute. Thompson and whomever winds up next to him in the pen will know their roles. You can’t convince me that relievers aren’t better when they are constantly pitching in the same situations each game.

Last season, Eldred would start riding the exercise bike in the fifth inning. He knew, if he was going to come in, it would be in the fifth or sixth. He was ready. In 41 games, he was the best Eldred could be. That was 41 games where the Cardinals had an advantage over every team in the Central.

The Cards pitching strength has been their depth. Their pen and their third threw fifth starters. Suppan and Marquis are decent pitchers, but you can’t rely on them for more than six innings. Ponson’s stats, and girth, suggest he shouldn’t exceed six innings either.

That means you need Wainwright/Benes/Flores to negotiate the 7th inning a few times a week. You need Looper/Rincon to get through the 8th, and Izzy to hammer down the 9th.

Without Izzy, Looper has to close (arrrrrghh), and someone else has to fill in the 8th inning. Worse, you have to rely on your worst pitchers to pitch the 7th, or you extend Suppan, Marquis or Ponson.

Izzy is that stabilizing force at the top of the pen. Without him, the pen crumbles, and the third through fifth starters crumble too.

Other GM’s are starting to pick up on this. Hence the Cubs adding Bob Howry and Scott Tyre. You need a pen. Izzy is the key to ours, and the one man the Cards cannot afford to lose.

Enough already---Bonds cheated

Enough is enough.

I’m officially tired of the cycle of blame in the steroid mess.

You’re familiar with the cycle of blame. It occurs when someone does something wrong, but you, for whatever reason, don’t want to believe it. So you try to blame everything else you can think of. You try every reason but the most painful, until each reason falls aside like a weak criminal defense, and your left with the real culprit.

The cycle of baseballs steroid mess has been as predictable as it has been long. Baseball fans loved the 1998 home run chase. We didn’t want to believe it wasn’t real; that it was a feat of science, not of humanity.

So when the tightly knit cabal of steroid users in baseball began to unravel, at the hands of the unlikely team of federal investigators and Jose Canseco, fans and writers began the cycle.

Step one: denial. It’s Jose Canseco, we said, you can’t believe him. He’s a liar. Look at the inconsistencies in his book. But a year after the Congressional hearings, Jose looks like one of the few honest men in baseball; friends, when an honest cheat is the best baseball can muster, it’s a sad day. Evidence began to pile up against the heroes of our day, and we could deny no longer. Jose may be a liar, but that doesn’t change the fact that steroids are a problem in baseball. Step one was over.

The next step was to try to ignore the problem. Ignoring is Bud Selig’s specialty, and he’s been practicing ignoring the steroid problem for over a decade. He’s the master. Fans and writers have tried in vain to match Bud, but the lure of money has proven too strong. See, Bud gets paid to ignore problems. Sportswriters get paid to expose them. This spring, three writers have written two books detailing Bonds steroid use. Capitalism works, you see. There was money to be made by exposing the story, and it got exposed. We could ignore no longer.

Step three: The case is weak; the evidence against Bonds is merely circumstantial, and those quoted in the books recently released are either unknown or unnamed, so how can we trust them? This statement is true. Bonds hasn’t tested positive, so circumstantial evidence will have to do. How do you verify circumstantial evidence? You see what how the evidence fits known facts.

Several sources state that Bonds decided in 1998 to begin using performance enhancing drugs. Each source agrees on the date and the reasoning; thus lending credibility to their stories.

Bonds showed up at spring training in 1999 with 15 lbs of muscle added to his frame. Bonds told Federal investigators that he began taking supplements from BALCO in 1999. Bonds admitted to taking the “clear,” a steroid, though Bonds said he thought it was flax seed oil. BALCO’s founder was involved in providing steroids to other athletes, including former sprint champion Tim Montgomery.

Prior to 1998, Bonds hit one homer every 16 at-bats. From 2001 on, he’s hit one every 7 at-bats.

I don’t know who the anonymous sources are in Jeff Pearlman’s book. Nor do I know Kimberly Bell, the former lover of Bonds who left Barry on less than amicable terms. But their stories make a lot of sense. And, they fit perfectly with Bonds performance increase and size increase.

Face it; he did it. The lawyer in me says I'm risking a liable suit by saying that. Truth, however, is a complete defense. I'll take my chances in Court.

So now we blame baseball. They ignored the problem, so its their fault players used steroids. Steroids weren’t even against the rules of baseball, radio personalities say, so we can’t hold their use against those who took them.

This argument drives me nuts. First, steroids were placed on the banned substances list in 1991 by Fay Vincent. That closes that issue. End of story. It doesn’t matter that baseball had no testing. Speeding is illegal whether there are police out or not.

Second, this position ignores the fundamental reason we’re talking about this right now. Barry is 48 homers away from Hank Aaron. It’s a sacred record. You have records to measure the players of our day against the players of all time. If Bonds used steroids and passes Hank, will you care?

Let me ask it this way. Assume baseball allows aluminum bats next season, and Albert Pujols hits .400. Will you care? Even if steroids were “legal,” which they weren’t, they tarnish the accomplishment beyond an asterisk.

Blame Barry for his use. Maybe he had reasons, maybe those reasons could even make us feel sorry for him. Certainly he wasn’t the only one. But he’s the only one about to do something that, without the steroids, would be amazing.

As it stands, he’s about to accomplish something that many before him have done. When he passes Ruth and Aaron, he’ll join a long list of Soviet weightlifters, the entire 1984 East German Women’s Olympic Team, and most modern US Sprinters as people that accomplished amazing things by cheating.

Congratulations.

So the question for baseball is: Do you value your records and do you value your Hall of Fame? If you value your records, you’ll investigate steroid use in baseball. You’ll start with Bonds. Is that fair? Nope. Not at all. Bonds is but one user, and I want to single him out. Why? He’s gonna break a record, and no one should be impressed.

If baseball values its home run record, Bonds must be investigated. If he's done what's been alleged, then his post 1999 numbers should be stricken from baseball. If he's still a hall of famer, fine, let him in. But don't put him in the same class as Ruth or Aaron. Just don't.

So far, I've heard Bud say something to the effect that Barry hasn't tested positive, so what can we do? It's a good damn thing Bud wasn't commissioner when Pete Rose was betting on baseball. I can imagine Bud saying, "well, Pete's urine is clean, so I guess we'll never know if he bet on baseball." Nice, Bud. Rome is burning, and I hear violins.

Final note: The reason we’re talking about Bonds now is he’s about to pass Ruth. In about six months, we’ll be talking about McGwire. Should he be in the Hall of Fame? McGwire’s squirmy testimony to Congress led most of us to believe he used the juice. Was it constant use throughout his career, or just a few times? I dunno, but at this point, I don’t care.

If McGwire wants in, then he has to prove to us he belongs. He has to prove his numbers are legitimate. If McGwire’s body had given out after 375 HR, no one would argue he’s a hall of famer. He’s also not in if the last 200 HR were roid-aided.

Mark, the floor is yours. Convince us you didn’t use, and you can go in. As it stands now, you look pretty guilty. And come November, there will be a few sportswriters ready to make some bucks off of printing circumstantial evidence against you. They’re just waiting for you to be relevant again.

As for me; I paid a lot of money watching McGwire hit those homers in 1998. I want my money back.

Welcome Back...

Welcome back Cards fans. Ok, welcome back mom and Jason.

The offseason is winding down, and I’m going to begin posting again. Why did I wait? Well, if you read this, then you’re a fan. You’re looking for informed insight. I don’t live in Florida, and I don’t talk to baseball players. What am I gonna tell you in spring training you don’t already know?

As it winds down, I’ll tell you that of those battling for second base and left field honors, Luna and Taguchi are certain to make the team. If they are named starters, it’s because no one else stepped up.

But I really don’t like spring training. It’s a time of anticipation, they say. I call it a time for pale imitation. We all get excited about Spring Training. Why? Because it means the season has almost started. It represents a marker on the way to opening day, but in reality, we’re no more experiencing baseball than we were in January. I liken spring training to advent. It ain’t Christmas yet, but the little chocolates you get each day are nice. Still, watching spring training games is like drinking O’Douls. It tastes bad, and will bloat you, all without the reward of alcohol. What a country.

But at least we have the competitions for bench spots on the roster; especially in the pen. And we get to speculate as to whether Chris Carpenter’s arm will fall off after throwing over 260 innings last season (including the post-season.) That’s always fun, so let’s get to it.

It looks for all the world like Taguchi will start in left, at least until Bigbie’s foot heals. Luna has been the most effective second baseman, but still could lose out to Spivey. Frankly, no one has impressed in the battle for left or second. No matter who is there, questions will abound. Spivey can't field, and Luna appears asleep half the time he's in the field.

The injury to Bigbie has ignited speculation that Chris Duncan will make the team. Not a terrible development.

Frankly, the step back in defense at second base and leftfield is troubling. The Cardinals pitchers don't strike out a lot of guys. They need to play great defense. So far, Spivey has been shaky, and no one else has stepped up. It's cause for concern.

Offensively, the Cards will likely take a small step back. Rolen, who is supposed to be in "recovery" mode until June, will still be better than Nunez. Encarnacion should replace Sanders numbers nicely. Anyone in left should improve over the rotating right fielder of 05. Edmonds and Molina should improve. Albert is Albert, Eckstein is Eckstein. The second baseman will like stink to high heaven.

Since Vina left, the Cards have been holding together second with cast-offs and over-the-hill roll guys. That it has worked as well as it has is a testiment to luck. Something tells me we can't do it a third time. We'll see.

But to me, the bullpen questions are more pressing.

The staff has been a concern of yours truly for a few months. I’ve spent the last few years telling anyone who will listen that the way to construct a regular season winner is to build a bullpen. You could get cheap, reliable arms like Tavarez, Al Reyes, Kline, King and Lincoln seemingly off the scrap heap each off-season.

With four or five quality arms to bridge the gap between starter and closer, you could afford to give your pen the 7th and 8th of each game. That allowed you to sign cheaper starters like Jeff Suppan, who is fantastically consistent, but always manages to give up about 3 runs a start, with six innings pitched. He keeps you in the game, and hands the pen either a lead, or a close game start after start. And he does it all for $3 million per year. That’s a winning strategy, especially in a small market.

But what happened this year? Scott Tyre got over $3 million per year, Kyle Farnsworth got nearly $6 million a year (is that THE Kyle Farnsworth? Really?), and Braden Looper got nearly $5 million a year…all to set up other closers.

Given the market, I’d say the Cards did a respectable job building their pen. Looper was awful, I mean awful, I mean pigs knuckles and sauerkraut awful last year against left-handed hitters. He turned every lefty last season into Jim Edmonds. And I mean the 2004 version of Edmonds, not last years mediocre facsimile.

Looper believes the ineffectiveness was related to a shoulder injury. His career stats suggest he’s correct. Over his career, he’s been as effective against lefties as Julian Tavarez, which is to say he’s decent, and I take that as a good sign.

Ricardo Rincon should be a solid lefty, and Izzy should continue to be dominant in the ninth. It’s a good start. But there are four more slots to fill.

One assumes Randy Flores will make the team. He’s a lefty that has pitched for LaRussa and has yet to prove he stinks. Despite this fact, I’m still leery of Flores. I watch him, and he’s effective, but I can’t figure out why. It’s like watching Leonardo DiCaprio act. You don’t know why, and you certainly don’t want to admit it, but he’s good. It’s best just to accept it a move on. I really have no point here.

I think Jeff Nelson’s chances took a hit when Tyler Johnson hurt his elbow. Nelson’s a righty, and he drops down when he pitches. His sidearmed delivery, coupled with his 6’7” frame, means he lets the ball go further to the right than Fox News. Lefties love him. If he makes the team, he absolutely cannot throw against any left-handers; not even if Tino Martinez comes out of retirement. I’d rather see Oquendo take the hill against Bonds than Nelson. If he makes the team, the Cards will need a third lefty.

Tyler Johnson had been tearing it up in winter ball, and he figured to challenge for the final lefty spot. Then he hurt his arm in batting practice. LaRussa may still take the veteran Nelson, but it will leave the Cards pen with at least three “specialists.” Rincon and Flores will typically face lefties, and Nelson will only face righties. And you thought TLR used to make a lot of pitching changes. The lesson, as usual, get TiVo and fast-forward the pitching changes.

Brad Thompson appears to have been steady this spring, so expect him to be on the squad.

So, we have:

1. Izzy
2. Looper
3. Rincon
4. Flores
5. ???
6. ???
7. Thompson

The candidates are Johnson, Cali, Nelson, Alan Benes, Josh Hancock and Adam Wainwright.

It’s the bullpen depth that concerns me. Cal Eldred was probably our weakest bullpen guy last year. He threw 41 effective innings. That’s 41 games where the Birds had an advantage over every other team in the Central. It’s not shaping up that way this year, and that’s a concern….for me and for Suppan.

My guess is we’ll see Hancock and Wainwright. If we see Nelson, that means either Cali or Johnson should be there as well, if not at the beginning, then early in April.

Now, on to Carpenter’s daily injury watch. The theory goes like this. Carpenter threw 260+ innings last season (with playoffs.) It was his first healthy season in four years, so now his are will fall off.

Quick Rob Neyer-esque quiz. Look at the following two pitchers.

Pitcher a: 241.1 innings pitched, 33 Games, 3395 pitches thrown, 10 times over 110 pitches with a high of 121.

Pitcher b: 241.1 innings pitched, 35 Games, 3601 pitches thrown, 10 times over 110 pitches with a high of 130.

Both pitchers have a history of shoulder problems, which one do you fear being hurt? Obviously pitcher b put more strain on his arm. Who was pitcher b? Roy Oswalt. Pitcher a was Carpenter.

Carpenter was incredibly efficient last season, never exceeding 121 pitches, and rarely exceeding 110. Am I concerned, sure. But it’s not as if he threw as much as Wood or Prior in 2003. Take a look at their stats:

Wood: 211 innings, 32 games, 22 times over 110 pitches with a high of 141, 3545 total pitches.

Prior: 211 innings pitched, 30 games, 3404 pitches thrown, 22 times over 110, high of 133 (twice, in his first and last start.)

Dusty Baker should be sued.

I give the above to put Carpenter’s injury risk in perspective. If he has a decent bullpen, Carpenter, and the Cards as a whole, will be fine.